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Holiday retail sales outlook overview:
- Who: Deloitte forecases holiday sales to increase by between 4% and 6% this year for a total of between $1.45 trillion to $1.47 trillion from November to January.
- Why: Deloitte says that while inflation affects consumer demand, consumers are still expected to spend money as the effects of the pandemic diminish.
- Where: The holiday spending will occur nationwide.
Deloitte forecasts holiday retail sales to increase by between 4% and 6% this year with total sales during the holiday season expected to finish between $1.45 trillion to $1.47 trillion from November to January.
The expected increase comes on the heels of a 15.1% holiday sales increase from between November and January of last year, according to Deloitte, which provides audit, consulting, tax and advisory services to brands.
Additionally, Deloitte forecasts e-commerce sales during the holiday season to increase from between 12.8% and 14.3% year-over-year, resulting in a total of between $260 billion and $264 billion in total sales.
Deloitte said that a “slowdown in the economy” is the reason it expected holiday retail sales to increase by a smaller margin than in 2021.
“Retail sales are likely to be further affected by declining demand for durable consumer goods, which had been the centerpiece of pandemic spending,” says Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster.
Consumers likely to spend more on consumer goods as pandemic effects ‘wane,’ Deloitte says
Deloitte expects more money to be spent on consumer goods as “the effects on the pandemic continue to wane, it says.
“Inflation will also help to raise dollar sales, although retailers will see less growth in sales volume,” Bachman says.
Nick Handrinos, vice chair, Deloitte LLP, and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution and consumer products leader, says he believes inflation weighs on consumer demand and will affect holiday budgets.
“Retail sales are set to increase as a result of higher prices, and this dynamic has the potential to further drive e-commerce sales as consumers look for online deals to maximize their spending,” Handrinos says.
The Deloitte vice chair noted that retailers who are able to offer both affordable and convenient purchasing options will be “well positioned for success” during the holiday season.
In August, Deloitte revealed in its back-to-school survey report that it expected consumers to spend an average of $661, year-over-year increase of 8%, during the back-to-school shopping season.
Do you think your holiday spending will increase this year? Let us know in the comments!
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