There are a lot more auto recalls than there used to be. Here’s why.

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In 2020 there were about two-and-half auto recalls a day in the United States alone, identifying 55 million cars that needed repairs. 

That’s more than all the new cars sold nationwide in the three busiest years in history.

And in terms of recent annual totals, 2020 was a slow year.

The total number of auto recalls each year has nearly doubled in the last two decades. There were only 527 distinct US recalls in 2001, but that rose above 1,000 in both 2016 and 2018, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the federal agency charged with writing and enforcing motor vehicle safety regulations. The number of vehicles being recalled soared from 22 million in 2001 to a record high of 86 million in 2016.

The number of distinct auto recalls slowed to “only” 886 in 2020, as miles driven plunged because of the pandemic, which likely stopped some problems from being discovered.

There are a few factors behind that surge over the last 20 years, and why the number is expected to keep rising:

Automakers now have a greater ability to detect and find fixes for problems than they did in the past.

A growing population means there are more cars on the road.

And a longer average lifespan for each model can allow more problems to be detected late in a vehicle’s life.

There is also a growing belief in the industry that the best strategy is to act quickly to fix problems and get ahead of them. 

But most of all, it’s because cars are becoming far more complex.

Today’s cars are being asked to find their place anywhere on the globe, perform diagnostics on the fly, and, more and more, to perform many driving tasks autonomously in place of a human. They are packed with far more computer chips and electronics than the rockets that took astronauts to the moon. With cars expected to do even more in the coming years, that complexity is only going to grow. And so will the problems.

Better car diagnostic tools and diagnostic tests

The first thing to know about the increasing auto recalls is that they’re not related to the car’s reliability, nor are they a sign that cars are worse than they used to be, according to Jake Fischer, the senior director of auto testing at Consumer Reports. 

In fact, “they’re safer and more reliable than they used to be,” Fischer said. What’s changed is that “there’s a different threshold in terms of recalling vehicles now because the reporting process is better.” 

Just as the development of new car diagnostic tools in medicine results in the ability to identify issues earlier and in an increased number of procedures, so too does the improved ability to identify car problems result in increased auto recalls. But “it doesn’t mean that every single one of them (has) that problem,” Fischer said. “You may recall 10,000 vehicles,” but not every one of them is going to have the problem identified in the recall.  

For example, General Motors announced in August that it was recalling every Chevrolet Bolt ever made — some 142,000 electric cars sold worldwide — after the vehicles’ batteries were shown to be at risk for catching fire.

“If they’re being recalled for fire, it doesn’t mean they’re all going to catch fire,” Fischer said. “There is just a chance they might.”  But one fire is too many, he said, and even if there’s a small chance of it, they’ll recall thousands and thousands.

“Not all of them are going to have that problem. It’s about preventing that chance.”

Complex components: Takata recall, GM ignition switch, and more

Another factor is that the average car in 2021 is undeniably more complex than it was in 2001. On average, there are 1,400 conductor chips in a car, a number that is only going to increase with time. 

“Vehicles are getting so much technology in them and there are so many electronic features, they tend to be glitchy,” said Michelle Krebs, an executive analyst for Autotrader.com. 

But automakers are also being more proactive about recalls, she said, especially after the 2015 recalls of cars with Takata airbags. 

In what would become the largest action of its kind in history, in 2015 automakers across the industry recalled vehicles with Takata airbags because they could degrade and explode if deployed. Drivers and passengers in the front seat were hit with shrapnel, leaving police to think the victims had been shot or stabbed. At least 28 deaths worldwide have been tied to the airbag, as well as hundreds of injuries — including some instances in which exploding airbags permanently blinded drivers.

Over the last seven years, more than 67 million cars were affected in the US alone, according to the NHTSA, across virtually all brands.  And according to the most recent stats, roughly a quarter of those cars have yet to be repaired. 

“Indeed, Takata airbags — which continue to be the gift that keeps on giving — as well as advanced electronics have a lot of demons,” Krebs said. “We started seeing automakers announcing recalls more quickly to stay out of trouble with NHTSA or to nip the problem in the bud.”

A year before the Takata recall, General Motors announced a recall of about 800,000 economy cars with a faulty ignition switch that could cause the car to shut off while driving. The news soon went from bad to worse for GM and its CEO Mary Barra, who had just been tapped to be the first woman to lead a major automaker. It became apparent that GM had spent years dodging the problems as reports of accidents and even deaths mounted. GM engineers became aware of the problems at least as early as 2004. Soon the recall climbed to more than 8 million vehicles worldwide, with at least 124 deaths tied to the problem. It ended up costing GM more than $8 billion in repair cost, victim compensations and fines.

The Takata recall and the GM ignition switch recall helped to change the thinking about acting quickly on reports of problems. But that doesn’t guarantee future problems won’t be allowed to fester before being brought to light, which could lead to another massive recall down the road.

“These more complex quality issues are not going away anytime soon,” reads a report published by the consulting firm McKinsey & Co. in 2019. “They result from the increasing complexity of vehicles, driven by growing numbers of new features and electronic or software components needed for autonomous driving assistance, geolocation services, and other smart functionalities. Quality and safety requirements for autonomous vehicles will be even higher and require a zero-defect mind-set and, consequently, a step change toward a no-recalls mind-set.”

Consumer confidence

The takeaway for car owners and buyers is that “typically recalls are a good thing — it means a company is taking care of an issue on cars and they’re taking action to keep people safe,” said Will Wallace, manager of safety policy for Consumer Reports. 

“It would be really great to have no safety defects,” he said, but “over the history of cars, we’ve seen there are simply going to be defects.”

What’s important, Wallace said, is for companies to take action, and make it easy for the consumer to get the repair work done.

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